Adam Rozencwajg
Co-Founder & Managing Partner, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates
Mining equities are pricing in $1,200 gold. The commodity supercycle hasn't started yet.
Background
Adam Rozencwajg is a Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, a natural resource investment firm he co-founded with Leigh Goehring. Before founding G&R, Rozencwajg worked at Goldman Sachs, where he focused on energy and resource equities. G&R publishes detailed quarterly research letters that apply a rigorous quantitative framework — combining S-curve demand modelling with geological depletion analysis — to identify inflection points in commodity cycles across energy, agriculture, and metals. These letters have developed a dedicated following among sophisticated resource investors.
Rozencwajg's analytical approach is distinguished by its emphasis on physical supply fundamentals rather than financial market sentiment. He builds detailed models of ore grade depletion, mine life, capital expenditure cycles, and exploration success rates to construct bottom-up supply forecasts that he argues consistently differ from consensus Wall Street projections.
Investment Thesis
Rozencwajg's gold and silver thesis is embedded within his broader commodity supercycle framework. He argues that decades of underinvestment in resource exploration and development — driven by low commodity prices and ESG-related capital restrictions on mining finance — have created structural supply deficits in gold, silver, copper, and energy that are beginning to intersect with accelerating demand from electrification, geopolitical rearmament, and monetary system re-ordering.
For gold specifically, he argues that declining ore grades at existing mines — a geological reality he documents meticulously — mean that maintaining current production requires increasing capital expenditure even without growing output. This creates an environment where gold production will decline or plateau regardless of price, making the supply side far less responsive to price signals than mainstream economists assume.
Silver occupies a particularly interesting position in his framework because it serves as both a monetary metal (gold-adjacent store of value) and an industrial metal (solar panels, electronics, EV components) — creating compound demand growth at a time when mine supply is increasingly constrained. He has made the case for silver's exceptional risk-reward profile more explicitly than almost any other quantitatively rigorous analyst.
Critiques & Limitations
G&R's geological and supply-side analysis, while rigorous, has consistently underestimated the demand destruction that occurs at commodity price spikes and the capacity of technology to reduce resource intensity per unit of economic output. Their supercycle thesis has been early by multiple years, creating opportunity costs for investors who repositioned into resource equities based on their framework before the cycle materialised. The firm's public research letters are detailed and intellectually serious but require considerable analytical background to evaluate — the conclusions are not plug-and-play for retail investors without substantial resource sector knowledge.
Notable Calls
- 2020: Published detailed analysis showing gold ore grades in decline at major producers, forecasting production plateau (Unscored)
- 2021: Argued silver industrial demand from solar and EV sectors would create structural supply deficit by mid-decade (Unscored)
- 2019: Published commodity supercycle thesis arguing resource equities were at generational valuation lows relative to financial assets (Unscored)